How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year war in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is another development in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Jesse Bennett
Jesse Bennett

Elara is a writer and philosopher passionate about exploring the depths of human thought and sharing transformative ideas.